India's IIP Growth Rebounded To Stronger-Than Anticipated 7.1% In November; Expected To Ease To Low Single Digits In December 2022: ICRA

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The Index of Industrial Production reverted to a stronger-than-anticipated YoY growth of 7.1% in November 2022 (our expectation: up 3.5%), as compared to the contraction of 4.2% in October 2022, led by a reversal of the base effect related to an early festive season.

Given this, the print should be interpreted with caution; average growth in the IIP remained muted during October-November 2022, at 1.3% YoY, lower than 1.7% seen in Q2 FY23.

Fewer holidays in November 2022, relative to 2021 led to a broad-based improvement across all the sub-sectors as well as use-based categories in November 2022, vis-a-vis October 2022.

Relative to the pre-Covid levels of 2019, the IIP reported a 6.4% rise in November 2022, in spite of consumer durables (down 4.0%) trailing the pre-Covid volumes.

However, the YoY growth of most available high frequency indicators has moderated in December 2022 relative to November 2022, partly reflecting an unfavorable base related to the post-festive season rebound seen in December 2021.

Inline with this, we expect the overall IIP growth to ease to low single digits in December 2022.

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By ICRA