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Our interaction with cement dealers suggests that average cement price at all India level has increased by 2% month-on-month in September 2022.
But given the weakness in July/August 2022, average cement prices at an all India level has declined by ~3% QoQ in Q2 FY23. Maximum decline is seen in east by 6% QoQ and maximum increase is seen in north of 3% QoQ in Q2 FY23.
Q2 FY23 has been weak in terms of prices, coupled with higher cost, this is expected to put pressure on Ebitda/tonne. Industry Ebitda/tonne could decline sharply with companies in east to be most impacted.
Having said this, we expect demand to improve post Diwali and price hike has begun and would watch for continuation of it. In the last one month, many mid/small cap cement stocks have seen run-up in stock prices led by price hike and anticipation of consolidation.
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