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Domestic daily fliers have crossed 418,000 as per trends in December 2022 compared to levels of 416,000 seen during Dec-2019/Jan-2020 (pre-Covid).
Dec-22 average daily number of passenger stands at 414,000 versis 390,000 in Nov-22. Average daily departures have increased from 2,722 in Nov-22 to 2,814 in Dec-22 and pax per departure has increased from 143 to 147 during the same period.
Average aviation turbine fuel price is lower by 8% QoQ in Q3 FY23.
Domestic load factors are increasing with trends of 79%, 82%, 83% and more than 86% (major airlines) from Aug-22 to Nov-22, respectively.
Average Q3 passenger load factors could be close to 85% compared to 79% in Q2 FY23 assuming 85% PLF in Dec-22.
As such, we expect IndiGo to report strong profits of Rs 15-20 billion in Q3 FY23. Cost overrun on wet leases/lease extensions akin to H2 FY20 is a risk but one can expect compensation from original equipment manufactures.
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