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We peg gross domestic product growth for Q2 FY23 at 6.2%, which is not different from our early estimate. Gross value added growth is seen at 6.1%. While goods and services tax collection growth has been robust at 27.5% YoY in Q2 FY23, higher subsidy payouts (up 177.7% YoY) will likely pull down net tax revenue growth, minimising the wedge between GVA and GDP growth.
We expect agriculture and allied sector growth to come in at 2% YoY in Q2 FY23 on lower Kharif rice output. Pulses output is expected to be largely flat while oilseeds output is expected to see a marginal decline, according to the First Advance Estimates.
Industry will remain a drag on growth with margin pressure continuing to weigh on the manufacturing sector on account of high input prices.
Industry output (excluding construction) is expected to decline by 0.4% YoY.
Services output (including construction) is likely to grow by 9.2% YoY in Q2 FY23 with a sustained recovery in contact intensive services and strong growth in financial, real estate and professional services.
Public administration, defence and other services will likely witness tepid growth on account of slowdown in government spending and a high base.
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