The World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Is Souring

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Toyota’s pursuit of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles is backed by the country’s trade ministry, which believes that hydrogen is key to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The government said in June that by 2035 all cars sold should be “so-called electric-powered vehicles,” with the proviso that hybrids are included. 

Japan’s automakers and government leaders have been reluctant to push for a pivot to all-electric for fears it would cannibalize existing car sales and devastate a broad network of parts suppliers and subcontractors. EVs generally don’t require as many components as traditional cars.

Auto production is one of Japan’s most important industries, accounting for almost 20% of manufacturing in the country and 8% of employment, according to a report by the Climate Group, an environmental organization. Toyota has promised to keep making around 3 million cars in Japan—around a third of its global output—to maintain employment and competitiveness.

“With an electric vehicle, basically half of Nagoya becomes unemployed,” said Jesper Koll, expert director of financial services company Monex Group, referring to the city in central Japan near Toyota’s headquarters and where many parts manufacturers are based. “The growth potential of the Japanese economy is definitely shrinking.”

Realizing that EVs are no longer the niche product they once were, however, Japanese companies are now stepping up investment projects, with Toyota spending 4 trillion yen to launch 30 EVs by 2030. Honda Motor Co. is co-developing an electric SUV with GM for a 2024 debut and has another partnership with Sony Group Corp. to deliver premium EVs starting in 2026. Nissan, which began delivering Ariya electric SUVs to US customers in December, has boosted spending to introduce more models. 

Yet rivals are also picking up their pace with EVs. GM has been moving particularly quickly and may surpass Tesla in EV sales in 2025, according to Bank of America analyst John Murphy. GM’s EV portfolio includes the Chevrolet Bolt hatchback and compact utility vehicles, the Cadillac Lyriq SUV, and the GMC Hummer pickup, and the company expects to launch several more EVs this year.

Executives at Toyota say all-battery cars are still too expensive or unfeasible due to a lack of charging infrastructure in many markets, particularly in the developing world. The average EV price in the US was about $65,000, compared to more than $48,000 for all new vehicles, according to a Kelley Blue Book report published in December.

Gill Pratt, Toyota’s chief scientist, points out that many countries lack the charging infrastructure to sustain the EV boom, saying a mix of EVs, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), and hydrogen-powered vehicles (HEVs) is the most realistic option in those markets.

“For these places and for customers without easy access to recharging infrastructure, PHEVs and HEVs are the most effective way to lower their carbon footprint. It is also the best way for net carbon emissions to be reduced as much as possible, as soon as possible,” Pratt said.

For all the challenges they face from nimbler players, Japan’s top automakers retain many advantages accrued during their years at the top of the heap. Having spent decades catering to mass-market consumers, they boast powerful brands as well as distribution and service networks that EV newcomers cannot match. Chinese rivals like BYD are still largely unknown in many countries and lack experience serving global customers.

“I would never count them out,” said Michelle Krebs, an executive analyst with Cox Automotive, speaking about Japan’s automakers. “They’ll still be in the game.”

Yet analysts say catching up won’t be easy for the Japanese as the competition around EVs shifts from traditional, mechanical engineering to software and services. The companies, with their late start, are missing out on the chance to get to know their EV suppliers and customers before their rivals do, said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.com, a website that ranks cars and dealers.

“Even if you have all the resources and capability of Toyota to produce an EV when you’re ready, you still have to go through a learning curve,” he said. “And the other automakers are ahead of you, because they’re doing it now.”



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Image and article originally from www.bqprime.com. Read the original article here.